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🗳US Senate Up For Grabs 

Republicans are counting on a favorable national environment for the party (economic woes + Biden's lack of popularity) and historical trends to help them gain the Senate majority on Tuesday. One-third of the US Senate are up for re-election this cycle. Of the 35 seats in contention this year, 21 are already held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. 

• The Democrats have the slimmest of majorities right now with the US Senate currently at 50-50 with VP Kamala Harris casting tie breaking votes. Midterm elections are typically referendums on the party in power, and Democrats must defy decades of that political history to keep control of the Senate. Below is helpful 'first midterm results by President' chart via NBC News. The numbers are for House seats gained/lost...though, typically, the House and Senate trend in the same direction. 

• A Senate Republican majority and the return of Sen. Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader could make life very challenging for President Biden's agenda, including his appointment of federal judges, which the Senate is in charge of confirming. 

• The Dems saw increasing support for about 90 days after the Supreme Court abortion decision, but recent polls show a surge for several Republicans in the final weeks. A Politics538 forecast-- based on an average of polls--shows a slight advantage for the GOP. But, this is still anyone's game.

There are about 8 very competitive Senate races, where the two parties are sinking tens of millions of dollars into, which could dictate who wins the majority. 

1. Arizona [Incumbent: Mark Kelly-D]Incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly has led this race against Trump-backed Republican challenger Blake Masters for months, but the race has tightened considerably. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state and independent voters are vital to winning statewide. The economy and immigration have put Kelly, a former astronaut, on the defense and forced him to distance himself from Biden on the border.Masters, a venture capitalist, has gained momentum despite shifting positions on abortion and whether Trump won the 2020 election. He ran an ad during his primary claiming that Trump was the true winner but backtracked on that in the general election. He also backtracked on his hardline stance on abortion, scrubbing some of his views on his website. Notable: This is the seat that once held by Sen. John McCain.

2. Georgia [Incumbent: Raphael Warnock-D]Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock faces off against former University of Georgia and NFL star Herschel Walker in a state that saw Biden win in 2020 by a very narrow margin. Warnock is the pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist church – where Martin Luther King used to preach. Republicans have sought to tie him to Biden policies as they seek to take back one of Georgia's US Senate seats (they lost both in 2020). Walker has dealt with an endless stream of scandals, from domestic violence accusations to the number of children he's fathered, including allegations he urged and paid for women to get abortions. This is a state that has a competitive Governor's race and Republican incumbent Brian Kemp could help bring Walker across the finish line. 

3. Nevada [Incumbent: Catherine Cortez Masto -D]Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough political environment and an uphill battle against Republican challenger Adam Laxalt. He is a former state attorney general whose family is well-known in the state. Laxalt's father was a senator and his grandfather a governor. He has the backing of Trump and denies the result of the 2020 presidential election. The state has large White and Latino working-class populations, which have struggled to recover financially from the effects of the pandemic, and are trending more Republican in recent years. 

4. New Hampshire [Incumbent: Maggie Hassan-D]This wasn't initially expected to be super competitive given New Hampshire is a state Biden carried 7 points and has been trending blue in federal elections. But it has tightened in recent weeks with retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc taking on first-term Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. Democrats actually spent money during the Republican primary to successfully get Bolduc, their preferred opponent, nominated. He has wavered back and forth on whether Biden legitimately won the 2020 election. New Hampshire could give us an early guide Tuesday to how the race for control of the Senate could end up. 

5. North Carolina [Incumbent: Richard Burr-R (retiring)]Polls suggest that the race for this open Senate seat appears to be leaning toward Republican Rep. Ted Budd over the Democratic nominee, Cheri Beasley, the former chief justice of the state Supreme Court. But the latest numbers show the race is still within a few percentage points. Beasley, the first Black woman nominated for the Senate from North Carolina, has tried to separate herself from President Biden and national Democrats and focused on economic issues. But the state has not elected a Democrat to the senate for more than a decade.

6. Ohio [Incumbent: Rob Portman-R (retiring)]It is a duel for blue-collar voters to win the open seat in this increasingly Republican state. Rep. Tim Ryan (D) has run an energetic campaign, presented himself as a moderate. He has accusedRepublican challenger (and Hillbilly Elegy author) J.D. Vance of leaving the state for San Francisco to make millions of dollars in Silicon Valley. Vance was once a vehement critic of Trump's who later solicited and recieved his endorsement. 

7. Pennsylvania [Incumbent: Pat Toomey-R (retiring)]The open seat represents Democrats’ best pickup opportunity to take a GOP seat. Biden won the commonwealth in 2020 after Trump won it in 2016. Pennsylvania is so important to Democrats, because if Lt. Gov. John Fetterman can hold on against celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz, then Republicans would need to win two of three races in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Oz is new to the state while Fetterman has won statewide before. Fetterman is also better liked than Oz according to state polls and Democrats are hopeful that helps him overcome a rough debate performance that exposed that he still has a ways to go to recover from a stroke. 

8. Wisconsin [Incumbent: Ron Johnson-R]Sen. Ron Johnson is the only Republican running for re-election in a state that Biden won in 2020. Mandela Barnes, currently lieutenant governor, is hoping to become the first Black senator in Wisconsin’s history. Johnson's approval rating is 45% in the state, the second-lowest for a Republican senator. He has supported some conspiracy theories around the 2020 presidential election and Covid vaccines and remedies. But he has gained an advantage of late with an ad campaign portraying Barnes as bad for the economy and as a supporter for defund the police activists. 

Honorable mentions: Races in Colorado, Utah, Florida, and Washington state are also worth watching, but incumbents in those races are currently in the lead according to recent polls.

Latest Polls: The NY Times ran an average of recent polls in key Senate races and then included columns of how these battles stand if there are polling errors similar to 2020 or 2018.

🗞 THE SPEED READ 

Trump team eyes Nov. 14 presidential announcement (Axios)

Former President Trump's inner circle is discussing announcing the launch of a 2024 presidential campaign on Nov. 14 — with the official announcement possibly followed by a multi-day series of political events, according to three sources familiar with the sensitive discussions. With polls pointing toward a good night for Republicans on Tuesday, Trump plans to surf the GOP's expected post-midterm euphoria to build momentum for his own effort to retake the White House.

As countries convene at climate summit in Egypt, reports show the world is wildly off track (CNN)

Over the next two weeks, negotiators from nearly 200 countries will prod each other at the COP27 summit to raise their clean energy ambitions, as average global temperature has already climbed 1.2 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution. Leaders are running out of time to implement the vast energy overhaul needed to keep the temperature from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius, the threshold scientists have warned the planet must stay under. Reports from the UN and the World Meteorological Association show carbon and methane emissions hit record levels in 2021, and the plans countries have submitted to slash those emissions are beyond insufficient.

Unilever to extend four-day working week trial to Australia (Financial Times)

Unilever is to extend its trial of a four-day working week to 500 employees in Australia after a successful pilot in New Zealand, becoming the largest company yet to offer a vote of confidence in the shorter schedule. Depending on the results in Australia, Unilever will consider rolling out the four-day week to more of its 148,000 employees globally.

Twitter asks some laid off workers to come back (Reuters)

Elon Musk cut about half of the company's 7,500 employees on Friday, but now the social media platform is reportedly trying to bring some of those workers back. Dozens of workers are being asked to return, some of whom were laid off by mistake and others who have experience building features that the new Twitter owner wants, Bloomberg reports. 

• On Saturday, Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s co-founder, apologized to the company’s former and current employees in a tweet: “I realize many are angry with me... I own the responsibility for why everyone is in this situation: I grew the company size too quickly.”

Retailers have a new holiday headache — people are spending their money on travel (CNBC)

Americans are returning to the skies, filling hotels, swarming theme parks — and they’re showing a willingness to spend more of their money on trips. That is setting up the fiercest holiday season battle for consumers’ wallets since before the pandemic. Retailers are juggling other challenges: selling off excess inventory, trying to lure consumers who already bought a lot of stuff during the pandemic and wooing shoppers who have become more budget-conscious, especially given persistent inflation.

Astros To Hold Parade Monday Following World Series Win (Click2Houston)

A parade will be held Monday at noon to celebrate the Houston Astros' second World Series championship. More than a million people are expected to fill the streets of downtown Houston. Several school districts and colleges already canceled classes on Monday.

Powerball jackpot rolls up to record $1.9 billion for Monday drawing (NBC) 

The Powerball jackpot stands at a record $1.9 billion after it rolled over Saturday night because no ticket matched all six drawn numbers. The next drawing is tonight at 11pmET. The previous record jackpot was $1.586 billion prize --which was won by three ticket holders in 2016 The odds of any given ticket’s winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292.2 million.

☀️ GOOD MOOD MONDAY

Dare you to watch this and not smile!

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