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Mo News Midterms: The U.S. House Breakdown

Author

Mosheh Oinounou
November 04, 2022

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Hey everyone,

  • Election Day is just 4 days away. And while Joe Biden may not be on the ballot, the future of his agenda is. We have our breakdown of the U.S. House;

  • He's baaaack! Benjamin Netanyahu is once again at the helm of Israel's government after the country's fifth election in four years;

  • What the October jobs numbers could signal about the Biden economy;

  • The NBA suspends Kyrie Irving for five games after he still won't apologize for his antisemitic retweet-- or say he holds no antisemitic beliefs;

  • It's the end of Daylight Saving on Saturday-- Get ready for it to feel like midnight at 5pm!;

  • Thousands of runners will hit the streets of NYC for the NYC Marathon this weekend;

  • And of course what we're Watching, Reading & Eating this weekend!

🗳MIDTERMS IN FOCUS: THE U.S. HOUSE

On Tuesday, Americans will make their voices heard at the ballot boxes in what could be one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent years. The outcome will have a monumental impact on the direction of the country, as well as the fate of the party in power in the White House.

Joe Biden is not on the ballot - but the election will be a referendum on the President and his policies - giving Americans the opportunity to express their views on his term thus far, and the current direction of the country.

At stake: The control of the U.S. House & Senate. Right now, Democrats hold a razor-thin majority in both chambers of Congress. But, as the country faces a growing list of issues, Republicans are aiming to take back both chambers after four years in the minority.

Over the next few days, we’ll take you through both the House and the Senate – key races to watch, and how each chamber could fall on Election Day. Today, we’ll start with the House.

  • All 435 House seats are up for election every two years. Democrats currently control the House with a very slim majority, with 220 seats to the Republicans’ 212. Only about 50 or so seats are competitive due to years of redistricting and gerrymandering that has led to the creation of an overwhelming number of solid red or blue districts. The Guardian recently published a great interactive chart showing how the parties have made nearly 90 percent of districts non-competitive.

  • That means the path to victory will come down to a few dozen races currently rated as “toss-ups,” according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

  • And the GOP needs just five new seats to win back the majority. Most polling predicts Republicans will succeed in that mission. In that scenario, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) would likely replace Rep Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as House Speaker. Fun fact: both of them from California.

  • Republicans are feeling pretty good about their prospects as of late based on their polling. So good, in fact, that they are now trying to flip some Democratic seats that were once thought to be "safe" in the final weeks before the election. ~Axios

  • That said, anything is still possible, especially given significant recent pre-election polling errors in 2016 and 2020. Vox takes us through several scenarios that could play out next week.

Democrats control the House with 220 seats. Republicans hold 212 seats. There are currently three vacancies.

  • Things aren’t looking great for House Democrats. Polling across the board shows that even if Democrats hold onto all seats they are expected to win, and win all toss-up races, the party would still wind up short of the number of seats needed to win the majority.

FiveThirtyEight latest poll analysis shows there is only a 15% chance of Dems keeping the House.

  • The grim outlook is not all that uncommon. Typically, the party that controls the White House suffers losses in the first midterm election.History proves it: In 2010, then-President Obama suffered arguably the worst “shellacking” in modern history, when Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats.In fact, the last 3 out of 4 American presidents (Clinton, Obama, Trump) have lost their Congressional majorities in their first midterm elections. Republicans picked up 54 seats in 1994 against Clinton, those 63 seats in 2010 while Democrats picked up 41 seats against Trump in 2018. Only George W. Bush picked up seats in 2002, though 9/11 was a major factor there. Though he later suffered a major wipeout during the 2006 midterms.

  • And this year, Democrats are facing particularly strong headwinds. Their majority is in jeopardy of crumbling under the weight of record high inflation and rising crime.The U.S. economy has teetered the edge of a recession (if we aren't in one already). Just 19% of Americans believe it is on the "right track."Inflation is the highest we’ve seen in decades – reflected in record-high gas, energy, and food prices.Record border crossings in the last year is being perceived as a growing threat.Crime is up in a number big cities from coast to coast.Plus, polls have shown that two critical voter blocks – women and minorities – are trending in a more Republican direction this year.In fact, a new WSJ poll this week found a nearly 30 point shift among suburban white women from the Democrats to Republicans in the last 90 days alone. They are key swing voters and make up 20 percent of the electorate. The headline: inflation and economy have gained more prominence for the group while abortion has faded in importance.

  • Republicans have been hammering the White House and Democrats on inflation, economy and crime. Meanwhile, Democrats have been focused on the issues they hope will energize their base, like voting rights, threats to democracy, and abortion.

  • With the President’s party stumbling in the home stretch, Democrats are deploying their biggest asset – former President Barack Obama – in a number of battleground states. They’re hoping he can help pull some key candidates across the finish line.

  • The gist of it: Expectations are bleak for Pelosi and team.

  • Preview: On Monday, we will look at all things US Senate.

🎧 An Insider View: Check out my interview last week with Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman laying out all the midterm scenarios and what to expect over the next two years. Newsletter | Podcast

🗞 THE SPEED READ

Benjamin Netanyahu will return to power for a third time, thanks to the rise of Israel's far right, which won a majority of parliament seats in Tuesday's election, final results showed Thursday. Israel on Tuesday held its fifth election since 2019 in a race, like the previous four, that was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s fitness to rule as he faces corruption charges. While the previous races ended in deadlock, Netanyahu managed a disciplined campaign that gave him the edge over a divided and disorganized opposition. He previously served as PM from 1996-1999 and 2009-2021.

When the Labor Department releases its October jobs report on Friday morning, it will be the last major read of the economy before the midterm elections. The US economy is expected to have added 200,000 jobs last month, down from 263,000 in September but well above the pre-pandemic average. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up slightly, to 3.6% from 3.5% — still close to a half-century low.

In an email to employees obtained by CNBC, CEO Logan Green and President John Zimmer pointed to what they called “a probable recession sometime in the next year” and rising rideshare insurance costs. Shares of Lyft were slightly negative Thursday. Shares have fallen almost 68% year-to-date, bringing its market cap under $5 billion. Lyft said it has just over 5,000 employees.

  • Lyft is not the only tech company to announce cuts or a hiring freeze recently. Netflix, Spotify, Coinbase, Shopify and most recently payments company Stripe have announced layoffs.

The Brooklyn Nets have suspended Kyrie Irving for no less than five games after he promoted an antisemitic film on his social media accounts and was not apologetic when given multiple chances to address the situation. The team released a statement saying, in part, it has "made repeated attempts to work with Kyrie Irving to help him understand the harm and danger of his words and actions. We were dismayed today, when given an opportunity in a media session, that Kyrie refused to unequivocally say he has no antisemitic beliefs."

  • "Speaking to reporters for the second time since his promotion of the film, 'Hebrews to Negroes: Wake Up Black America,' Kyrie Irving refused to say he was sorry, refused to say he didn’t hold anti-Semitic beliefs, refused to say the Holocaust happened and cast himself as the victim in the entire saga. Irving was cut off by Nets PR after just six minutes of answering questions." ~ NYPost

The network said the former Fox News host will be leaving CNBC after two years. NBC has canceled “The News with Shepard Smith” in an effort to focus more on business-news coverage. The network plans to replace the 7 p.m. show with a business news program at the beginning of next year.

Drivers would hit and kill 37,000 fewer deer each year if the United States stuck to daylight saving time year-round, according to estimates in a new study published Wednesday in the journal Current Biology. The study predicts that keeping year-round daylight saving time — and reducing the amount of time that rush-hour traffic takes place during darkness — would prevent 33 deaths and some 2,000 injuries among people and save about $1.2 billion in collision costs

American long-distance running has shown significant improvement and accomplished plenty in the past two decades. But at times it can feel like the U.S. is back where it was at the beginning of the 21st century, when the country that birthed the so-called running boom in the 1970s struggled to qualify runners for the Olympic marathon. The idea of competing head to head with athletes from East Africa over 26.2 miles seemed preposterous. For many American runners, even as they break new records, they’re watching the athletes from around the world shatter those records as well.

Good luck to everyone running the NYC marathon this weekend!

🎉 CHEERS TO THE FREAKIN' WEEKEND

What We're Watching: White Lotus, Season Two (HBO)

What We're Reading: When Women Lead by Julia Boorstin (Interviews Mosh did with her for the Mo News podcast & newsletter)

What We're Eating: Leftover Halloween candy

📸 Top Banner Photo Credit: Getty Images

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