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Mo News: It's The Final Countdown
Mosheh Oinounou
August 01, 2022
Mo News: It's The Final Countdown
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Hello and welcome to August! Where did the summer go?
In today's newsletter, we break down:
The midterm elections are 99 days away. We look at which party is expected to control Congress;
Why the Biden administration has quietly started rebuilding pieces of the U.S.-Mexico border wall;
Could major oil producers help us with lower gas prices this week?
Voters in Kansas face a big decision on abortion Tuesday;
One big music star who could face years behind bars for tax evasion;
Stop using this sunscreen! The alarming recall linked to cancer-causing carcinogens;
And as always, Good Mood Monday to start the week right.
I'll see you tonight at 9pmET for my regular Mondays with Mosh Instagram Live, where I will take all your questions.
~ Mosh
🚧 BORDER WALL CONSTRUCTION
Major Reversal: The Biden White House is completing sections of former President Trump’s border wall, in an effort to stem the flow of illegal border crossers from entering the US. The plan will fill four major gaps in the wall, that have become some of the busiest paths for migrants to cross the 2,000 mile southern border. ~ NBC News
DHS says it will close four wide gaps in barriers near Yuma, Arizona - a town that has seen a 292% increase in border encounters from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2022. The area is the third-busiest illegal-crossing site along the U.S-Mexico border. In just the first six months of this year, Border Patrol Agents have stopped more than 160,000 migrants along the section.Arizona environmentalist Myles Traphagen described the Yuma area as "the new Ellis Island for Arizona."
U.S. Customs and Border Protection
The openings are near the Morelos Dam, which runs north-south along the Colorado River before turning on an east-west track at the California-Arizona state line.
Map by David Lindroth for Yale Environment 360 via UCBoulder
DHS says this area can be life-threatening for migrants attempting to cross into the United States, and hopes a completed wall will protect them from getting hurt or drowning. The threat is real: In June, a 5-year-old migrant girl drowned after being separated from her mother while they were crossing the river.
Overworked and overwhelmed: It’s not just Yuma. Agents across all sections of the border are struggling to control the record number of migrants crossing into the country. June was the fourth-straight month in which border officials encountered more than 200,000 migrants (207,416). It also brought the total number of arrests recorded since October 1st to 1,746,119 — the most in any fiscal year since 1960.The border is also being exploited by human traffickers and drug smuggling groups. In just the last few weeks: Border Patrol Agents in El Paso disrupted 20 human smuggling incidents to rescue 129 smuggled migrants; Laredo CBP Officers seized more than $4.3 Million worth of Methamphetamine all stashed into one truck; and Border Patrol Agents along the California-Mexico border arrested an individual attempting to smuggle in 250 pounds of fentanyl.
While campaigning for president, Biden vowed, “There will not be another foot of wall constructed (during) my administration.” He then ordered a halt to all border wall construction shortly after taking office in January 2021. But, that pause left major holes in border security.
With immigration a top issue for some voters this November, the White House looks to be taking action on the border before midterms. One major advocate for the wall move was Democratic Senator Mark Kelly. The first-term Arizona senator faces a tough reelection this fall and has been pushing the White House to do more.
One of the gaps in the wall near the Morelos Dam in Yuma, Arizona. [Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images]
🇺🇸⏱ IT'S THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
We’re officially 99 days out from this year’s high-stakes midterm elections. Just a few more states still have primary elections before the big day – so as we begin to focus on November – what's the state of play?
At stake: The control of congress. Right now, Democrats hold a razor-thin majority in both the House and Senate. But, as the country faces a growing list of issues and President Biden's approval sinks lower and lower, Republicans are aiming to take back the House of Representatives after four years in the minority.
The House: The House has 435 total seats. The GOP needs just five of them to win back the majority. Most predictions say Republicans will succeed in that mission. Historically, the party that holds the White House (in this case, the Dems) loses seats in the first midterm elections. In that scenario, Republican Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will likely replace Rep Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as House Speaker.
All 435 House seats are up for election every two years. Democrats control the House with 220 seats to Republicans’ 211. There are currently four vacant seats, for which special elections will be held prior to the November midterm elections.
Things aren’t looking very good for House Democrats. Polling across the board shows that even if Democrats win all toss-up races, and hold onto the seats they are still favored to win, the party would still wind up short of the number of seats needed to win a majority.
The newest CBS News Battleground Tracker model finds Republicans picking up nearly 20 seats and predicts a 230-205 majority for the GOP. That is in line with another analysis by the UVA Center for Politics, which predicts a 20+ seat Republican pickup.
FiveThirtyEight 2022 Midterm Projections
Only time will tell. Despite mostly grim expectations for Democrats, some recent polling shows that hope may not be totally lost for Pelosi and team. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted July 22-25 showed Democrats with a 4 point edge over Republicans in House races. Survey results from The Economist/YouGov from July 23-26 had Democrats 6 points ahead.
The Senate: The Senate is currently split 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans (Vice President Harris has a tie-breaking vote – so Democrats currently control the majority). In order to flip the Senate and retake the majority, the GOP would only need to win one seat. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is the current Senate Majority Leader. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) plans to return to the role if Republicans win control.
Note: Yellow indicates Independents who caucus with the Democrats. [Graphic via Bloomberg Government]
14 Democrat-controlled seats and 21 Republican-controlled seats are up for election. Republicans still have plenty of opportunities to pick up seats, but several of their candidates in key, winnable races in PA, GA and OH are in trouble.
FiveThirtyEight 2022 Midterm Projections
FiveThirtyEight 2022 Midterm Projections
36 states have Governor’s mansions up for grabs. The pandemic was a turning point for local elections across the country – as the spotlight turned to state-level leaders to decide on things like mandates and lockdowns.
FiveThirtyEight 2022 Midterm Projections
The gist: It’s not uncommon for the party that controls the White House to suffer losses in the following midterm election – and Democrats this year are facing historically strong headwinds. The U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of a recession (if we aren't in one already). And, inflation is the highest we’ve seen in four decades – reflected in record-high gas, energy, and food prices. The one thing most members of both parties agree on: the country is heading in the wrong direction.But – Democrats are amplifying other issues they hope will energize voters. That includes gun violence and, of course, abortion, which has has recently become another flashpoint for voters across the country. Speaking of which...
✍️ ABORTION RIGHTS ON THE BALLOT
On Tuesday, voters in Kansas will determine whether abortion rights will continue to be protected under the state’s constitution. If the pro-life side wins, state officials would have the ability to restrict, or ban, abortion. ~ The Kansas City Star
Why it’s significant: Kansas is the first state in the country allowing voters to directly decide their state’s abortion policy since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.It is also the first of several states to have abortion rights directly on the ballot in the midterm elections this November.
The ballot measure: The ‘Value Them Both’ amendment. (The wording re: for/against is a bit confusing.)A vote for the measure means there is no constitutional right to an abortion in Kansas. It would give elected officials the ability to regulate abortion, and would not require the government to fund abortions.A vote against the amendment would make no changes to the state’s constitution – keeping abortion legal – and could prevent elected officials from enacting laws to regulate abortion.
Kansas’ current abortion policy: The Kansas Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that the state Constitution protects the right to an abortion. So, if this amendment passes, it would nullify the court’s ruling, and allow lawmakers to enact anti-abortion laws.A couple of Kansas’ neighboring states (OK + MO) have banned abortions – making Kansas a destination for residents of those states wanting an abortion.
Expected outcome? It’s a toss-up. A recent poll of likely voters found 47% were in favor of the amendment while 43% opposed it. 10% were still undecided.
Key context: Kansas’ legislature is controlled by Republicans, but the state’s governor, Laura Kelly, is a Democrat who supports abortion rights. Historically, abortion has been a highly contentious issue for Kansans: In 1991, thousands of anti-abortion protesters united in Wichita for what became known as the “Summer of Mercy,” and in 2009, abortion doctor George Tiller, who provided late-term abortions, was murdered in the state by an anti-abortion extremist.
🛢👀 ALL EYES ON OPEC
A gathering of the world’s top oil producing countries will take place Wednesday, as concerns over global energy supply continue. President Biden is hoping for progress, after leaving Saudi Arabia last month without a deal to boost supply. ~ CNBC
Sources tell Reuters that the group is likely to keep oil output unchanged for September. Analysts say it’ll be difficult for OPEC+ to actually boost supply, with so many producers already struggling to meet production quotas.
The meeting comes after oil companies posted record earnings last week, thanks to lingering sky-high gas prices. Oil & gas prices have nearly doubled from a year ago, so strong results were pretty much expected – but they were even stronger than economists predicted. ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell earned a combined $46 billion in the second quarter. The companies say they plan to use their profits to build their energy supplies at a time when they face headwinds from the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The oil giants are facing harsh criticism over the massive profits. Some say it’s coming at the expense of Americans, who have to pay unreasonably high gas prices, as rising energy costs contribute to inflation around the world. Even before these second quarter earnings came in, President Biden warned, “We’re going to make sure everybody knows Exxon’s profits... Exxon made more money than God this year.” Some say it’s all relative: Oil industry analyst Andy Lipow said the increased earnings should be put in context. “They’re still making less than Google or Apple," he told NBC News. "No one is complaining about $1,300 iPhones, but the difference is, you don’t see the price of an Apple iPhone on a corner store with 12-inch numbers," Lipow said, referring to gas price signs on the road.
Prices at the pump: The average price of gasoline in the United States reached a record of just over $5 a gallon on June 14, according to AAA. But the price has been falling in recent weeks. On Sunday, the national average was $4.22 for a regular gallon of gas. Though, it is still high compared to a year ago.
National Average Gas Prices on Sunday, July 31 | AAA
🗞 THE SPEED READ
President Biden tested positive for Covid-19 again Saturday morning, in what is likely a “rebound” Covid-19 case. White House doctor Kevin O’Connor says this type of case can be linked to “a small percentage of patients treated with Paxlovid.” Biden is not experiencing any more symptoms, but will continue to isolate at the White House. O’Connor said the President tested negative on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday before testing positive again on Saturday morning. Biden tweeted the news Saturday afternoon.
For the first time in decades, the House passed a bill to ban assault weapons. The legislation passed 217-213 in a vote on Friday. It now heads to the Senate, where it currently does not have the sufficient votes for passage. The bill calls for prohibiting the sale, manufacture, transfer, or import of various semi-automatic assault weapons, pistols, and shotguns. 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats broke from their parties to vote with the other side. Assault weapons were banned in 1994 but the prohibition expired 10 years later without action by Congress. The legislation comes amid another weekend mass shooting, injuring 7 in Orlando.
As of last night, 28 people have been confirmed dead, four days into the catastrophic flooding from record rainfall in Eastern Kentucky. State officials fear that number is likely to grow. Governor Andy Beshear said the state and region are still in rescue and recovery mode to find missing people and identify the dead. He said there's no way to confirm the number of people missing right now - but praised heroism within the community.
We still don't know the identity of the winner of Friday night’s $1.337 billion Mega Millions drawing. The winning numbers — 13, 36, 45, 57 and 67 and a gold Mega Ball of 14 matched a single ticket sold at a Speedway gas station in Des Plaines, Illinois. Authorities are still waiting on someone to claim the prize--which translates to a $780.5 million cash lump sum or the full $1.337 billion in payments over the next 30 years. Keep in mind--both numbers are before state and federal taxes....which are pretty significant.
A huge crash during Stage 5 of the women's Tour de France on Thursday left one rider requiring hospital treatment. The incident occurred on a straight section of the road, and quickly escalated into an enormous crash which took half the field off their bikes. It took several minutes for riders to untangle themselves from one another. One Danish cyclist had to leave in an ambulance.
Banana Boat's Hair & Scalp Spray SPF 30 is being recalled after tests detected trace levels of the carcinogen benzene. Benzene is classified as a carcinogen. Exposure to benzene can occur by inhalation, orally, and through the skin, and it may result in cancers including leukemia and blood cancer of the bone marrow and blood disorders which can be life-threatening.
Colombian pop star Shakira opted to go to trial instead of accepting a deal offered by Spanish prosecutors to settle allegations she defrauded Spain’s government out of 14.5 million euros ($15 million) in taxes between 2012 and 2014. She faces a possible $24 million fine and prison sentence of 8 years and 2 months, if found guilty of tax evasion.
☀️ GOOD MOOD MONDAY
One village in Britain wasn't kidding when they said stop and smell the roses! It's tackling speeding by planting thousands of flowers along the road... because drivers slow down as they pass by. The flowers are acting as natural speed traps for motorists, successfully doing the work that road signs could not.
SWNS via Good News Network
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