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Mo News: Instagram's Shock Reversal
Mosheh Oinounou
July 29, 2022
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Morning everyone:
Happy National Chicken Wing Day! There are a lot of discounts at restaurants across the country.....
Now to the rest of today's headlines:
Instagram backtracks on mimicking Tiktok after all the backlash;
New numbers show that the US economy is likely in a recession, but not everyone agrees;
Russia replies to Brittney Griner prisoner swap offer;
New data on obesity shows how much genetics actually play a role;
Chilling new details on the Kavanaugh assassination plot;
Chess-playing robot breaks 7 year-old's finger;
Domestic airfares under $300 are back;
Mega Millions $1 billion drawing is later tonight. We have some practical advice for you if (when!) you win;
And, as always, our weekly Cheers To The Freakin' Weekend section, what we're watching, reading, and eating this weekend.
Thanks for reading,
Mosh
💸 RECESSION QUESTION
Let's start with the latest warning sign for the state of the U.S. economy. We learned Thursday that the economy actually shrank for the second straight quarter – fueling fears that we are now in a recession. ~ New York Times
The report: Yesterday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report showed that U.S. economic growth declined by 0.9% in the second quarter of the year (April, May, and June). It declined by 1.9% in the first quarter (Jan, Feb, March). Those back-to-back contractions for the first half of the year are the long-held textbook definition of a recession.
But a group of independent economists working for the National Bureau of Economic Research (aka the Recession Referees) don't follow that definition. The NBER has a more complicated formula and likely wont make their official call for a few more months. One of the counter-arguments is that while GDP slowed, there are other elements of the economy, including unemployment, that are still strong.“The numbers are baffling right now — we just don’t normally see declining GDP and rising employment,” said Betsey Stevenson, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and one of the 'referees' at the NBER. “Employment is still growing. Consumer spending has not taken much of a hit. Households have stronger balance sheets than we normally have.”In many respects, the economy is in uncharted territory. The only time there have been six months of contraction without a recession appears to have been in 1947, according to Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at (my alma mater) George Washington University.Regardless of who you agree with, the economy is definitely weakening. The GDP report revealed businesses are drastically cutting back on spending. The Federal Reserve’s purposeful aggressive rate hikes to bring down inflation are making borrowing more expensive. That is leaving us with less money to spend and businesses less money to pay workers. It is a challenge: Slow things down without starting a recession.
Quarterly changes in real GDP. The sets of consecutive black bars mark the 2008 and 2020 recessions. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via The New York Times
“That doesn't sound like recession to me.” President Biden is pushing back against claims the current economy is in a recession. In reaction to the report, Biden touted the job market, saying it "remains historically strong, with unemployment at 3.6% and more than 1 million jobs created in the second quarter alone." He said his economic plan is focused on lowering inflation. Republicans ridiculed him for what they say is denying reality.
Markets reacted little to the GDP report. They were expecting a slowdown and the report had little in the way of surprises. At the same time, another report yesterday showed job layoffs are once again increasing. Initial jobless claims totaled 256,000 for last week, a higher number than economists projected.Bottom line: A JP Morgan analysis on Thursday said, "Despite a second consecutive quarter of negative #GDP growth for 2Q, we do not believe the US slipped into recession.” HOWEVER, they added that the recent large increase in initial jobless claims, "raises our level of concern about a recession taking hold." ~CNBC
📸 INSTAGRAM BACKTRACKS.....FOR NOW
Social Media Surprise: Instagram has heard all the criticism and appears to be reversing major changes. The social media platform announced earlier this week it was experimenting with full-screen videos and photos and de-emphasizing content from friends and family in an attempt to mimic the increasingly popular Tiktok. But, there was a massive outcry and now it appears they are listening to users. The Instagram boss announced a major move late Thursday in an interview with the tech website, The Verge.
Instagram Head Adam Mosseri walked the changes back Thursday, telling Casey Newton that "we definitely need to take a big step back and regroup."
“I’m glad we took a risk — if we’re not failing every once in a while, we’re not thinking big enough or bold enough,” Mosseri said. “(When) we’ve learned a lot, then we come back with some sort of new idea or iteration. So we’re going to work through that.”BUT: Newton writes that Mosseri made clear in the conversation that the Instagram retreat is not permanent. He writes, "Threats to the company’s dominance continue to mount: TikTok is the most downloaded app in the world, the most popular website, and the most watched video company." So you may have only won a small battle in a larger war to stop the changes....
The planned pivot was part of the app's attempt to stay relevant, especially as more people share snippets of their lives through video. Instagram says users are also increasingly sharing content with friends and family through stories and DMs, so it is experimenting with new content from strangers in user feeds. But many still accused Instagram of having a full-blown identity crisis. ~ CNBC
“Stop trying to be TikTok.” Users across the platform revolted over the video-centric update. A Change.org petition collected hundreds of thousands of signatures. And some high-profile users, including several Kardashian sisters, led the charge. Kim and Kylie reposted a picture on their stories that said, "Make Instagram Instagram again." Kylie Jenner has the third-highest number of followers on the entire app. Combined, her and Kim have a stunning 686 million followers (aka 10 percent of humanity.)Flashback: In 2018, Kylie Jenner tweeted that she stopped using Snapchat after its redesign. It sent the stock tumbling more than 8% that day – an estimated loss of more than $1 billion in market value… so, Instagram understood it had a problem.
The timing isn’t great for Instagram and Facebook parent company, Meta, either. It posted a pretty rough earnings report on Wednesday. Profit tanked 36%. It was also the first time the social media giant’s revenue had fallen since it went public a decade ago. Oh, and the FTC is suing the company over a recent virtual reality deal.
All this is leaving us nostalgic for the Instagram glory days. Who didn't love seeing which accounts your friends were stalking, or scrolling through new photos with filters that made them look really old?
Via Business Insider: Sonya Doctorian / The Washington Post via Getty Images
🇷🇺🇺🇸HIGH-STAKES PRISONER SWAP
Russia is responding to the Biden Administration's proposed prisoner-swap to bring two American detainees, WNBA star Brittney Griner and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, back home. US Secretary of State Tony Blinken announced earlier this week that the White House was offering Russia a deal and he planned to speak with the Russian Foreign Minister. The proposal reportedly includes the US sending convicted Russian Arms Dealer Viktor Bout back to Moscow in exchanged for Whelan and Griner.
Left: Convicted Arms Dealer Viktor Bout; Center: WNBA player Brittney Griner; Right: Paul Whelan, a former US marine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed surprise that the US went public with the offer, noting Russia had cautioned the US that discussions are best conducted in private."So far, there are no agreements in this area," Peskov said. "When discussing such topics, you don't conduct information attacks." Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added that talks on prisoner exchanges had been going on for some time but without a result. ~Reuters
CNN reports that during months of internal discussions, the U.S. Justice Department opposed trading Bout, arguing that it incentivizes countries to kidnapping more Americans. However, Justice officials accepted a Bout trade after a push by the State Department and President Biden. The US conducted another prisoner trade with Russia back in April that got little-to-no criticism.
🍎 RE-THINKING WEIGHT GAIN IN THE US
Nearly 3/4 of Americans are now considered overweight, and more than 4 in 10 meet the criteria for having obesity. But new research reveals patients may not have as much control over their ability to shed excess pounds, after all. USA Today has launched a new series looking at how things need to change if the nation hopes to successfully tackle the crisis.
Rethinking obesity: America has been fighting an obesity epidemic for years, from promoting new diet fads to modernizing medical care. So why does it appear to be getting worse? Experts say factors like societal stigma and stress supersede biology when it comes to weight loss.
Super-sized shame: Stop blaming the person. "There's a lot of misperception among patients that they can somehow 'behavior' their way out of this – if they just had enough willpower and they just decided they were finally going to change their ways, they could do it," said Dr. Sarah Kim, an endocrinologist at the University of California, San Francisco. But, she warns, that’s just a prescription for misery, shame, and self-punishment.Instead, change should come from society itself, by subsidizing healthy food, making processed food less readily available, and teaching kids how to take better care of their bodies.
The shame and embarrassment tied to obesity is leading some to ditch the doctor’s office altogether. "I spent 50 years largely avoiding doctors because they're going to weigh me," said one patient, who struggled with weight loss her entire life. And she’s not alone. Research shows people who experience and internalize stigmas with their weight are more likely to avoid health care.
Mind vs. Metabolism: It’s a battle most people don't win. Genetics and evolution play too big a role. The human body has evolved over thousands of years to hold on to excess calories through fat. And while a lucky few may have hit the genetic jackpot, doctors warn not to be fooled – a slender outside may just be disguising an unhealthy inside.
Don’t sleep on exercise: Experts agree that regular exercise is critical for a healthy human body of any size. And, speaking of sleep – don’t miss out on that either. A good night’s rest is often the first to get the ax when schedules become overloaded. But a lack of sleep can make you feel hungrier, and cause you to snack more. That's why sleep deprivation has emerged as a key risk factor for obesity.
🗞 THE SPEED READ
President Biden held his longest call yet with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday morning, amid escalating tensions between the two world powers. The strained relations spurred by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential trip to Taiwan, which has governed itself for decades - but China is vowing to take control of the island… and is threatening military action if necessary. Pelosi leaves on her trip to Asia today with a stop in Taiwan still in doubt.
FBI search warrant application shows chilling online postings from Kavanaugh assassination suspect (Fox News)
An FBI search warrant reveals disturbing details into the motivation of the man accused of attempting to assassinate Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. 26-year-old Nicholas John Roske had a wide-ranging search history of terms related to the attack, including "how to be stealthy," "assassin skills," and "most effective place to stab someone" in the weeks leading up to the planned attack. Roske said he was “gonna stop roe v wade from being overturned” and that he would “remove some people from the supreme court,” according to the FBI. “Two dead judges ain’t gonna do nothing,” the unnamed user told Roske. “You would die before you killed them all.” Roske replied: “yeah but I could get at least one, which would change the votes for decades to come, and I am shooting for 3.”
Stunning video showed a birds-eye view of the devastating flooding in Kentucky. You can see the town completely underwater, transforming roads into rivers. Governor Andy Beshear confirmed eight deaths late Thursday and warned the toll will keep going up. Some residents were forced to climb onto their roofs in hopes of being rescued.
Public safety is wedging a deeper divide in the Democratic party. House Democrats want a legislative win that satisfies both progressive and moderate members.
Airfares Under $300 Are Coming Back (Wall Street Journal)
After months of record-high airfare prices, lower fares are returning this fall. The average airfare for a round-trip domestic flight is projected to fall to $298, according to data from the travel booking app Hopper. For comparison, comparable fares in May were over $400 – a drop of 26%. Forget summer vacation – autumn getaways, here we come!
A chess-playing robot fractured the finger of its 7-year-old opponent during a tournament in Moscow last week. It happened when the machine grabbed one of the boy’s chess pieces, and then quickly removed it from the board. But, before the robot’s arm could retract, the boy attempted to make another move, pushing one of his rooks into the same place as the recently removed piece. But it confused the robot’s mechanical claws, which grabbed the boy’s index finger instead of a chess piece. Ouch!
The mega-millions jackpot now topping $1 billion dollars, after no ticket matched all six numbers drawn on Tuesday night. It's only the third time in the 20-year Mega Millions history that the jackpot has topped $1 billion. Your next chance to get lucky is tonight.
🎉 CHEERS TO THE FREAKIN' WEEKEND
What We're Watching: Dive into the last weekend of Shark Week with host Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson. Maybe we'll learn how to steer clear of them at the beach. 🦈🌊
What We're Reading: The rules of Pickleball... you either love it or hate it.
What We're Eating: Sunday is National Avocado Day! 🥑 Break out the avocado toast and guacamole - or find somewhere you can celebrate with a deal.
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