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Mo News: Can Protesters Topple The Iranian Regime?
Mosheh Oinounou
October 10, 2022
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Hi everyone--
Protests calling for the downfall of the authoritarian Islamic regime in Iran are officially entering their second month. How much has changed in the last month and how likely is it that this revolution can be successful?How world leaders are responding, including Obama admitting his "mistake" in responding to the 2009 Iran protests
What Ghislaine Maxwell is saying about Prince Andrew, Jeffrey Epstein and former Presidents Trump and Clinton in a new interview;
China's leadership opens its big summit with a warning for Taiwan;
President Obama has some choice words for cancel culture;
The federal student loan forgiveness application is now live;
There are new U.S. recession warnings from economists;
Holiday airfares could reach record highs;
A Ukrainian ballet company is going on its first-ever U.S. tour;
Elon Musk's new perfume is selling fast... but the scent may scare you;
And as always, Good Mood Monday to start the week right.
I will see you tonight at 9pmET on our regular Mondays with Mosh Instagram Live. Get your questions ready!
~ Mosh
🎙 Preview: Our Wednesday newsletter will feature an interview with Reza Aslan, a NY Times bestselling author and Iran expert, who has a new book out on the subject. He explains why this revolution is different than past protests and calls on world leaders to be doing more to support the uprising.
🇮🇷 UPRISING IN IRAN
Sunday marked one month since the death of 22-year old Mahsa Amini. She was killed after being taken into custody on September 16th by the "morality policy" for allegedly failing to fully cover her hair with her hijab. Three days later, she was dead.
Her death super charged anti-regime protests, which have now grown to encompass the dozens of cities, multiple ethnicities and several generations. It has left Iran’s four-decade old religious dictatorship facing its biggest challenge ever.
Sporadic public protests against the government have erupted over the years, but were suppressed quickly with severe retaliation by the government. Nothing compares to the scale we’re seeing today. Thousands have been arrested and hundreds have been killed, but Iranians continue to take to the streets to challenge the regime's grip on power.
Getty Images
Unprecedented uproar: Anger against the Islamic Republic shows no signs of calming as it enters month two. Nearly 100 cities have seen demonstrations. A number of major cities and small villages across the country resemble a war zone.
Latest Protest Map on Sunday 10/16 via Institute for Study of War.
Thousands of social media videos show protesters--including teenage girls--defying security forces, evading arrest, burning police cars, billboards, and setting streets on fire in unprecedented fury against the regime.
Just days after Mahsa Amini’s death, two 16 year old women—Nika Shakarami and Sarina Esmailzadeh — were beaten and killed by Iranian security forces after participating in an anti-hijab protests. They’ve also become martyrs for the anti-regime demonstrations. ~ New York Times
Getty Images
Last month, nearly two dozen children were killed during the protests, according to a report by Amnesty International. At least 23 children – some as young as 11 – were killed by security forces in the last 10 days of September alone, the report said.Here are some more faces of young people tragically killed in the protests.
Overall Death toll: Iranian state media has reported that at least 60 people have died since the beginning of the protests in Iran. However, human rights organizations believe the number is likely much higher. One human rights group, HRANA, says at least 233 protesters have been killed since demonstrations swept Iran on September 17th.Iran's internet has been disrupted for weeks, making it difficult to confirm the true toll of the government’s crackdown on the protests.Earlier this month, the AP reported 1,900 people had been arrested.
This weekend: A massive fire engulfing Tehran's Evin prison broke out on Saturday. It is a notoriously brutal detention facility that’s become a symbol of its political repression – hundreds of activists and political prisoners are held here, including protesters who have demonstrated against the Iranian government in the last month.
Getty Images
Witnesses say the blasts from explosions and gunfire were so loud, they were heard in neighborhoods surrounding the prison. Smoke could be seen rising from the prison in videos shared on social media.
State-run newsagency IRNA (we approach their "reporting" with caution) says the fire started after a clash between inmates and staff. ~ New York TimesIRNA said yesterday at least eight inmates were killed and 61 injured in the fire. ~ ReutersThe prison fire is yet another indication that Iran's regime is facing one of the biggest tests in its 43-year existence. ~ Wall Street Journal
Some of the most shocking scenes over the last month:Iran authorities shot rubber bullets into crowds of young people, and beat and arrested dozens more, at the Sharif University of Technology in Tehran."We thought they were going to kill us," said Mahan, a 25-year-old engineering student at Sharif. "It felt like we were in a war zone and the enemy was hunting us down looking for victims to slay." ~ New York TimesA video of Iranian authorities sexually assaulting a female protester while trying to arrest her ignited new fury across Iran. ~ The Guardian
The Regime's Response: Iran’s government has played down the protests and continues to resort to force, using ammunition and metal pellets to fire on protesters within close range.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has refused to make any concessions to the protesters and blamed the demonstrations on the US and Israel. ~Al Jazeera
Regime At Risk: The protests continue, but can this revolution succeed against a regime that has been in power since 1980?
“This is not a protest for reform,” said Roham Alvandi, a history professor at the London School of Economics. “This is an uprising demanding the end of the Islamic Republic. And that is something completely different to what we’ve seen before.”"This has escalated to the point where it’s not going to be easy for them to shut it down." Guardian senior international correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison says. ~ The GuardianKey Issues: The current demonstrations lack a leader and key principles/agenda beyond bringing down the existing regime.According to a Carnegie analysis, these protests need to grow beyond calls for “death to the dictator” and come up with a leadership structure. "Whereas the Islamic revolutionaries of 1979 could rely on the network of mosques and the clergy inside the country, there is nothing comparable today that could help channel the unrest. Lacking such organization, the demonstrations could either be crushed, as in the past, or become more violent as people become more desperate" they write. ~Carnegie
Tens of thousands of demonstrators in hundreds of cities around the world (LA is pictured above) have taken to the streets in support of the protests in Iran. Via Getty Images
Response from world leaders: Global heads of state are speaking out in support of the protesters, but aside from their words and some sanctions, there has not been much tangible action.Over the weekend, President Biden reinforced that the U.S. stands with the protesters. ~Guardian.The U.S. was one of the first countries to respond with additional sanctions against the regime. Canada followed suit. EU leaders are expected to discuss implementing sanctions during a meeting today.Making up for previous neglect. In a podcast on Friday, former President Obama admitted he made "a mistake" by not supporting the the 2009 Green Movement--the last major protests--against the regime.Flashback: The Green Movement spread throughout the nation after Iran’s disputed presidential election in June 2009. Peaceful protests broke out over the official claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the election in a landslide. The protests were the first serious challenge to the Islamic Republic, but the regime quickly cracked down on them.
Response from Celebrities: Dozens of prominent Iranian activists, journalists, lawyers, pop stars, and even athletes have been jailed for speaking out, as their popularity and following poses a threat to the Iranian government. ~ ABC News"Celebrities — be it athletes, actors, singers or artists — have a large following inside Iran, particularly on social media, and their support gives life to these protests," said Holly Dagres, an Iranian-American non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.Celebrities from outside ran have also shown support, including Dua Lipa and Shakira. Balenciaga erased its entire Instagram feed so it’s post in support of the protesters could stand in solidarity. Angelina Jolie shared a photo of a protester holding up an image of Amini and wrote, “To the women of Iran, we see you.”
🗞 THE SPEED READ
A meeting of top Chinese Communist Party elites, held only once every five years, began yesterday in Beijing. The gathered leaders at the 20th Party congress are expected to select Chinese President Xi Jinping for a precedent-defying third term as Party leader (after 10 years in power), meaning his authoritarianism and assertive foreign policies are likely to continue for at least another five years.
Xi delivered a major speech to kick off the meetings, where he touted the party's ability to maintain national security, social stability and health. Xi won the loudest and longest applause from the nearly 2,300 handpicked delegates inside the Great Hall of the People when he spoke about Taiwan. He said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” and that he believe the time is soon. And then gave a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”
Ghislaine Maxwell has spoken for the first time from jail about her “dear friend” Prince Andrew. In a prison interview, where she is serving 20 years for trafficking teenage girls, she confessed: “I feel so bad for him. I follow what is happening to him.’’ In two interviews, one of which was conducted face-to-face in prison, Maxwell says that Andrew is a victim of fake evidence. She also spoke for the first time of her close friendships with former Presidents Clinton and Trump, and called her association with Jeffrey Epstein the "greatest regret of my life."
Economists now expect a recession, job losses in 2023 (Wall Street Journal)
The U.S. will enter a recession in the coming year as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation, the economy contracts and employers cut jobs in response, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists. On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%, up from 49% in July’s survey. It is the first time the survey pegged the probability above 50% since July 2020, in the wake of the last short but sharp recession.
The shooting deaths of two Connecticut officers and wounding of a third punctuated an especially violent week for police across the U.S. and fit into a grim pattern. According to organizations that track violence against police, 56 officers have been killed by gunfire this year — 14% more than this time last year and about 45% ahead of 2020′s pace. The country is on track for the deadliest year since 67 officers were killed in 2016. The increase in ambushes and killings of police comes at a time when many departments around the country face staffing shortages, with some agencies down hundreds of officers and struggling to fill vacancies.
An early version of the student loan forgiveness application form is live; relief to come later (USA Today)
The federal government released a preliminary application form for its mass student debt cancellation plan late Friday night. Borrowers can submit their applications, but they won’t be processed until later this month. The application is available here, though the agency said it would pause the site periodically for maintenance. The preliminary form comes as the administration is facing several legal challenges to its plans for mass debt relief.
Thinking of flying for the holidays this year? Expect to pay more for airfare than at any other time in recent years. Thanksgiving airfare prices are currently averaging $281 round trip, up 25% from last year, according to travel booking group Hopper. For Christmas travel, airfare prices are averaging $435 round trip, up 55% from last year and 19% higher than in 2019. Those are the highest levels in at least five years, according to the website.
President Biden last week invoked a Trump-era rule known as Title 42 -- which Biden’s own Justice Department is fighting in court — to deny Venezuelans fleeing their country the chance to request asylum at the border. The rule, first invoked by Trump in 2020, uses emergency public health authority to allow the United States to keep migrants from seeking asylum at the border, based on the need to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Former President Obama took aim at cancel culture and the messaging of the Democratic Party in a recent interview.
"My family, my kids, work that gives me satisfaction, having fun," Obama told the "Pod Save America" podcast on Friday. "Hell, not being a buzzkill. And sometimes Democrats are. Sometimes people just want to not feel as if they are walking on eggshells, and they want some acknowledgment that life is messy and that all of us, at any given moment, can say things the wrong way, make mistakes."
When the dancers of the Kyiv City Ballet went on tour in February, they had no idea they would be stranded abroad for eight months due to war. The dance company left Ukraine on Feb. 23 to perform in Paris. Company director Ivan Kozlov said they were only supposed to be gone three weeks. To keep them safe, France granted the dancers a long-term residency. They are now traveling on their first ever U.S. tour.
On Tuesday, the billionaire announced his foray into the beauty space with a debut fragrance. Dubbed ‘Burnt Hair,’ the perfume is described as "the essence of repugnant desire" and the "finest fragrance on earth." On Twitter, he joked that the beauty venture was "inevitable" considering the punny nature of his last name. Burnt Hair, which Musk says is an "omni-gender product," retails for $100 a bottle on boringcompany.com and is slated to ship in 2023. Musk says he's already sold 20,000 bottles of Burnt Hair, which means he's earned about two million dollars from the launch as of Wednesday.
The Boring Company
☀️ GOOD MOOD MONDAY
School drop off gets an eco-friendly upgrade as families ditch their cars for a morning joy ride on the bike! Bike buses are taking over neighborhoods as a fun way for kids to commute to school. It's in an effort to combat climate change, encourage exercise, reduce traffic, and make kids happier. 🚲😊
NBC News
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