Inside the 36-Hour Russian Rebellion

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🗞 36 HOURS OF CHAOS INSIDE RUSSIA

The short-lived Russian coup attempt seems to be over…for now. The uprising was the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule since he took power more than two decades ago — and could be consequential for what happens next in Ukraine.

THE MAN BEHIND RUSSIA’S REBELLION
Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ex-con-turned hot dog seller-turned Kremlin caterer-turned Putin protege, leads a private mercenary organization called the Wagner Group. Formed a decade it ago, it has conducted some of the most vicious fighting around the world on behalf of Russia — particularly in Ukraine, where it’s achieved some of the biggest victories on behalf of Putin.

Lately, Prigozhin has grown increasingly frustrated with Russian military leadership, including lackluster support and $$ for his group as thousands of fighters have died on the front lines. It comes as Putin is funding other mercenary groups and promoting enemies of his former protege. So Prigozhin staged a revolt after claiming the Russian army deliberately attacked his forces. He took over a major Russian city and military HQ and made it within 125 miles of Moscow, before suddenly stopping, and claiming the clashes would be too bloody.

Late Saturday, Prigozhin reached a truce to avoid years of prison (or worse) and exile peacefully (for now) in neighboring Belarus. Given the embarrassment the events caused Putin, including making him look weak before his country and military, it is unclear how long this truce lasts. The U.S. says it doesn’t believe the internal conflict is done playing out just yet.

HOW THE REBELLION UNFOLDED (Moscow Local Time)

• 11AM Friday: Prigozhin openly questions Putin’s war strategy and Ukraine war motives, and accuses Russian military officials of ordering deadly airstrikes on his Wagner Group.

• Overnight Saturday: Wagner Group armored vehicles begin moving into Russia, starting with the city of Rostov-on-Don. Russia announces Prigozhin faces criminal charges.

• 7:30AM Saturday: The Wagner Group takes Rostov-on-Don with little resistance, including Russian Southern military command HQ.

• Late Saturday morning: Wagner forces set their sights on Moscow, again meeting little resistance as they pushed north toward Russia’s capital city along the M-4 Highway. They shoot down multiple Russian choppers, a plane and kill at least 13 Russian soldiers.

• 10AM Saturday: Putin makes a televised address to the nation. “Actions that split our unity,” he said, “are a stab in the back of our country and our people.”

• 8:30PM Saturday: About 125 miles from Moscow, Prigozhin announces his forces are turning around. Belarus state media announces a surprise deal had been struck. Wagner begin to leave Rostov-on-Don, where locals cheer and show their support for the Wagner Group.

Within hours, Russians were repairing the roads they purposely damaged on the highway leading north to Moscow in order to block Wagner Group tanks.

THE AFTERMATH
The short-lived rebellion and retreat exposes Russians’ frustration with Putin over a war he hasn’t been able to win, but won't pull out of because he refuses to admit defeat. While it ultimately failed, the rebellion reveals the cracks in the facade of unity that Putin’s censorship has portrayed. Prigozhin is shown to have fans (see photo at the top) among poorer Russians who share his frustration with the “elites.”

The irony is that the Wagner Group has been an extension of Russia’s foreign policy for years — only for it to turn its back on Putin and stage a coup to overthrow him. Wagner Group recruitment ads displayed on billboards across Russia were quickly taken down. Notably, many of their fighters are Russian violent prisoners freed early in exchange for becoming mercenary soldiers.

PRIGOZHIN VS. PUTIN
Prigozhin launched a military rebellion against the Kremlin. Putin called his top mercenary a traitor. There’s really no outcome where these two hug it out.

The questions now: What is Prigozhin’s next move from neighboring Belarus? What is the future of the Wagner Group? Has the weekend rebellion and weak Russian military response inspired other Russians to try their hand at overthrowing Putin?

WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WAR IN UKRAINE
The Ukrainians welcomed the distraction and internal fighting between the Russian military and Wagner Group over the weekend. Ukrainian officials said it brought no dramatic changes to the front line but damaged Russian morale and showed disloyalty within Russian battle lines.

The future role of the Wagner Group is in doubt despite their mercenaries achieving some of Russia’s biggest battlefield achievements. It comes as the Ukraine and Russia have seen very few territorial gains for nearly a year. The Ukrainians have made little progress during a new counter-offensive, and hope the split among Russian fighters offers them an opportunity to win back some land.

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🗓 ON THIS DAY: JUNE 26

• 1945: The UN Charter, the founding document of the United Nations, was formally signed in San Francisco.

• 1963: President John F. Kennedy visited West Berlin, where he delivered a famous speech expressing solidarity with residents. He declared: “Ich bin ein Berliner” (I am a Berliner)

• 1977: Elvis Presley performs in public for the very last time in Indianapolis. He closed the concert with “Can’t Help Falling in Love with You,” and reportedly told the audience “We’ll meet you again, God bless, adios” as he left the stage. He would die about six weeks later at the age of 42.

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