Happy Friday and Memorial Day weekend! 2024 could see a record breaking Atlantic hurricane season; Understanding global drop in fertility rates; and US looks to break up Ticketmaster & Live Nation.

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Good morning,

It’s the unofficial start of summer, and if you’re looking for swimsuit inspo it could come from an unexpected place: Saudi Arabia.

• The country hosted its first-ever swimsuit fashion show. It comes as the country is undergoing a major change under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

  • Just a few years ago women were required to wear body-covering abaya robes, were not allowed to drive and were harassed by stick-wielding religious police. That has all changed.

• Since being named crown prince in 2017, MBS has been trying to diversify and modernize the economy and society. At the same, the government has also continued to crack down on free speech and imprison activists. It is a story we are monitoring.

Hope everyone has a relaxing and meaningful Memorial Day weekend,

Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren

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🌀 NOAA ISSUES MOST AGGRESSIVE HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTION EVER

US government forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season suggest it could be extreme, perhaps even record-breaking. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 forecast yesterday, issuing its most aggressive outlook ever.

It comes as rising ocean temperatures and the development of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean is creating ideal conditions for earlier and more extreme storms in the Atlantic.

ABOUT THIS SEASON
NOAA meteorologists predicted 17 to 25 tropical storms this season from June 1 to Nov. 20. Eight to 13 of those are expected to become hurricanes and four to seven “major” hurricanes (Category 3+).

• An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

• Most activity occurs between mid-August and mid-October.

Why this one is above average: Near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean is causing stronger storms to form earlier and with more rapid intensification. Climate change has been linked to warming waters. And more, a fading El Niño climate pattern to La Niña adds to storm risk.

BEEN HERE BEFORE
Back in 2005, the hurricane season exceeded all expectations with a record-breaking 28 storms, including Hurricane Katrina. This year could get close to, or even surpass 2005.

• Now vs then: NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said the tropical Atlantic waters are “dramatically” hotter than they were 19 years ago. In fact, the current May temperatures are as warm as they usually are in August.

  • New research points to hurricanes intensifying about three times in speed as they approach the coast compared to a couple decades ago.

🍼 FERTILITY RATES CONTINUE TO DROP DESPITE INCENTIVES

Birth rates are plunging across developed, wealthy countries. Now some politicians want to tackle the problem with cash or tax incentives. A new analysis from The Economist suggests that the group driving the decline is mostly low-income, younger women.

WHAT THE POLITICIANS WANT
Every wealthy country except Israel has a fertility rate beneath the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. That’s the number of births needed to keep the population of a country stable without immigration.

• Former President Trump said he'll support “baby bonuses for a new baby boom” if reelected.

• France’s president wants to “demographically rearm” the country, which already spends 3.5-4% of GDP on family policies annually.

  • Birth rates have not been this low in France since WW2.

    

• South Korea, where fertility rates dropped to a new low of 0.72 in 2023, is contemplating handouts worth $70,000 for each baby.

  • The country has already spent over $270 billion in childcare subsidies, but no reputable study has shown a single extra birth resulting from them.

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
The bulk of the decline in the fertility rate in rich countries is among younger, poorer women who are delaying when they start to have children. They have fewer kids overall.

• Over half the drop in America’s total fertility rate since 1990 comes from women under 19, partly because more are going to college.

  • College-educated women are having about the same number of kids as a generation ago and only start about two years later (from 28 to 30).

  • For non-college educated mothers, in 1994 the average age of a first-time mother was 20 — now, about two-thirds of women without degrees in their 20s have not had their first child.

• WHO TO TARGET: Having birth rates fall for younger women is a success — negative health and economic outcomes are seen for both teen mothers and their kids. So, incentivizing this group to have more kids again could bring other risks.

SOLUTIONS
While educated and skilled immigration can help fill gaps, it’s not a forever solution as fertility is falling globally.

• Adapt or fail: Older people will likely need to work later in life, and countries will have to rely on technological advances to boost economic productivity growth and help care for the aging.

🎟️ US GOV LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY SPLIT UP TICKETMASTER, LIVE NATION

Major news for concert fans: The US Justice Department, along with attorneys general from 29 states and DC filed an antitrust lawsuit against Ticketmaster and parent company Live Nation. They say the pair has hurt American consumers and artists.

WHAT THE CASE ALLEGES 
The case says the monopoly is driving up consumer costs, as it owns more than 250 venues, oversees approximately 60% of concert promotions at major venues across the US, and operates about 80% of all major entertainment ticket sales via Ticketmaster.

• If venues don’t exclusively sell their tickets through Ticketmaster, Live Nation has reportedly threatened to pull future events at the locations.

• Bottom line: Artists are backed into deals to perform only at venues that use Ticketmaster while concertgoers pay more for tickets because of added-on fees and limited competition.

  • Attorney General Merrick Garland said, “Fans pay more in fees, artists have fewer opportunities to play concerts, smaller promoters get squeezed out, and venues have fewer real choices for ticketing services. It is time to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster.”

How we got here: Back in 2010, federal regulators approved the merger of Live Nation and Ticketmaster. The reversal more than a decade later comes after a years-long investigation by the Justice Department's antitrust division (after ticket sales for Taylor Swift Era’s Tour were a total debacle).

LIVE NATION RESPONDS:
“Calling Ticketmaster a monopoly may be a PR win for the DOJ in the short term, but it will lose in court because it ignores the basic economics of live entertainment.”

What could happen: Antitrust cases can take years. The DOJ and states are seeking a jury trial.

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⏳ SPEED READ

🚨NATION

📌 Louisiana legislature approves bill to classify abortion pills as controlled substances (CBS NEWS)

📌 Supreme Court throws out race claim in South Carolina redistricting case (NBC NEWS)

📌 Baltimore’s former top prosecutor spared prison for mortgage fraud and perjury (AP)

📌 Norfolk Southern, EPA reach $310M settlement over East Palestine train derailment (AXIOS)

🌎 AROUND THE WORLD

📌 Taiwan scrambles jets and puts missile, naval and land units on alert over China’s military drills (AP)

📌 20 Singapore Airlines passengers injured by turbulence still in intensive care, many needing spinal surgery (CBS NEWS)

📌 9 dead, 54 injured as wind causes stage collapse at Mexico election rally (CNN)

📌 What’s on the menu for the White House state dinner honoring Kenya (PBS NEWS)

📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH

📌 TikTok rolls out new rules to limit the reach of state-affiliated media accounts on its platform. (AP)

📌 Blood test to detect colon cancer could move a step closer to FDA approval in the US (CNN)

📌 About 1 in 9 children in the US have been diagnosed with ADHD (NEW SCIENCE)

📌 A lawsuit accuses Hershey's of using 'deceptive' packaging on Reese's products (NPR)

🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT

📌 Cassie Ventura breaks silence on Sean 'Diddy' Combs assault video (BI)

📌 Sean Kingston's mother arrested during SWAT raid at singer's South Florida mansion (CBS NEWS)

📌 Catherine, Princess of Wales portrait becomes latest royal painting to spark debate (CNN)

📌 Michael Strahan's daughter Isabella reveals she has memory loss due to cancer treatment (USA TODAY)

🎉 CHEERS TO THE FREAKIN WEEKEND

• WHAT WE’RE WATCHING: Mosheh: 'The Beach Boys' ~ Disney+;

  Jill: ‘Spacey Unmasked’ ~ MAX.

• WHAT WE’RE READING: Mosheh: In the Shadows: True Stories of High-Stakes Negotiations to Free Americans Captured Abroad ~ Mickey Bergman; Jill: Why Are People Weird About Only Children? ~ The Atlantic’s Chiara Dello Joio

• WHAT WE’RE EATING: Mosheh: Hot dogs! According to the National Hot Dog and Sausage Council, Americans eat 818 hot dogs per second on Memorial Day; Jill: Fish Tacos from The Sunset Club at Tappen Beach.